DBA defense at MSM: Bubble Theory and Stock Market Crash


Mr. Ahmed Farghaly successfully defended his DBA thesis at MSM on 26 April 2019. His thesis was titled Bubble Theory and Stock Market Crash: A Case Study of the American and Egyptian Stock Markets.

Predicting a crash is a very complicated process, particularly in stock markets. The aim of the research of Mr. Farghaly is to provide a formal verbal definition and measurable condition to identify crashes and its different types. Mr. Farghaly also aims to disconnect these from other downward patters such as corrections, bearish trends and crises. Mr. Farghaly designed a simple and efficient model to identify speculative bubbles which only precede stock market crash patters.

The American and Egyptian markets were chosen as case studies for the research. In both markets the model was able to predict all the great stock market crashes, all crashes that were preceded by historical high prices and all the famous and well know crashes to public investors such as the 1929 Great Depression, the 1987 Black Monday, the 2008 Financial Crisis in the American market, the 2006 crash, the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2011 crash after the Egyptian revolution in the Egyptian market.

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