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Predicting Policy Impact

  • Diploma
    Certificate of Participation
  • Mode
    Full-time on campus
  • Course date
    21 - 25 June 2027
  • Duration
    5 Days

Understanding choices and anticipating outcomes

Every policy decision is based on an expectation: that it will change behaviour and lead to a desired outcome. But how can we assess whether that expectation is realistic before a policy is implemented?

This five-day course introduces participants to an analytical framework for anticipating policy outcomes. By understanding how policies influence the decisions of individuals and organisations, you will learn how to assess the likely effects of policy interventions before they are implemented.

Using real-world policy examples, you will explore how decision-making can be analysed and translated into informed predictions of policy outcomes. You will gain sufficient technical understanding to critically interpret policy analyses, question the assumptions on which they are based, and make informed use of their results.

Throughout the programme, you will apply the concepts to a policy or programme question from your own professional or research context. By the end of the course, you will have a practical framework for thinking through policy questions, anticipating likely outcomes and using analytical evidence to support decision-making.

Why join this course?

  • Anticipate policy impact before decisions are made
    Develop a practical approach for assessing the likely effects of policies and programmes before implementation, complementing evaluation methods that look at impact afterwards.
  • Understand the decisions behind policy outcomes
    Learn how individuals and organisations respond to policy incentives and how these responses can shape the overall outcome of a policy or programme.
  • Apply the approach to your own work
    Work on a policy or programme question from your own professional or research context and develop a structured way to analyse it.
  • Assess policy predictions with confidence
    Learn how to critically examine predictions of policy outcomes, understand the assumptions behind them and judge how much confidence to place in the results.